Russia's reserves will be enough for three years if oil prices drop to $25-30/barrel
Russia will have enough accumulated reserves in order to fulfill budgetary obligations for three years in case oil prices fall to $25-30 per barrel, Russia's Minister of Finance Anton Siluanov told reporters on Tuesday.
"For our budget and for our oil companies, of course, oil prices of about $60-65 per barrel are naturally positive," Siluanov said. "We see that the budget is also being implemented steadily, reserves are being filled. Therefore, of course, I would not want any stressful situations either in one direction or another," he said.
However, according to Siluanov, there are risks of falling oil prices to $25-30 per barrel. "Since oil prices are unlikely to increase dramatically, then if the restrictions on oil production are not reached with OPEC countries, there are, of course, risks that prices may drop to $25-30 per barrel. Our budget policy allows us to circumvent these risks for up to three years, fulfilling all our obligations with accumulated reserves, therefore, in this part we will not have such a strong volatility of the exchange rate if this situation happens, because additional foreign exchange interventions from the National Wealth Fund will be used to reduce the pressure on the volatility of the ruble," said Siluanov.
According to the current budget rule, additional treasury income from the sale of oil in excess of the base price (in 2019 — about $ 41.6 per barrel) goes to the National Wealth Fund.
"Predictability is beneficial for us, the current state of energy prices is beneficial, but if this situation changes, we have our armored train in reserve," Siluanov concluded.
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"For our budget and for our oil companies, of course, oil prices of about $60-65 per barrel are naturally positive," Siluanov said. "We see that the budget is also being implemented steadily, reserves are being filled. Therefore, of course, I would not want any stressful situations either in one direction or another," he said.
However, according to Siluanov, there are risks of falling oil prices to $25-30 per barrel. "Since oil prices are unlikely to increase dramatically, then if the restrictions on oil production are not reached with OPEC countries, there are, of course, risks that prices may drop to $25-30 per barrel. Our budget policy allows us to circumvent these risks for up to three years, fulfilling all our obligations with accumulated reserves, therefore, in this part we will not have such a strong volatility of the exchange rate if this situation happens, because additional foreign exchange interventions from the National Wealth Fund will be used to reduce the pressure on the volatility of the ruble," said Siluanov.
According to the current budget rule, additional treasury income from the sale of oil in excess of the base price (in 2019 — about $ 41.6 per barrel) goes to the National Wealth Fund.
"Predictability is beneficial for us, the current state of energy prices is beneficial, but if this situation changes, we have our armored train in reserve," Siluanov concluded.
Source