Russia’s GDP slowing down to 2.4% in 2022 — World Bank
Risks to the baseline forecast for Europe and Central Asia remain tilted to the downside, the report shows.
Russia’s GDP will decelerate to 2.4% in 2022 and to 1.8% in 2023, the World Bank said in its Global Economic Prospects report.
"Growth in the Russian Federation - the region’s largest economy - is projected to moderate to 2.4% in 2022, as macroeconomic policy continues to tighten and domestic demand wanes, and to further decelerate to 1.8% in 2023, as industrial commodity prices edge down," the World Bank’s experts said.
"Output in Europe and Central Asia (ECA) is estimated to have expanded by 5.8% in 2021, reflecting a faster-than-expected rebound in domestic demand through most of the year. Firming activity in the euro area and higher commodity prices lifted export growth and remittance inflows, further bolstering the regional recovery," the World Bank noted. "Robust incoming data contributed to upward revisions of estimates for 2021 growth in about 90% of ECA economies. Recent high-frequency data, however, suggests that the latest surge of the pandemic will be disruptive, including through tighter domestic mobility restrictions and international travel bans," it added.
"New export orders have slipped, reflecting softening external demand and supply bottlenecks. Consumer confidence is waning owing to increasing COVID-19 cases, rising inflation, and policy uncertainty. Many of the region’s central banks are rapidly withdrawing monetary policy accommodation, prompted by a surge in prices that has pushed inflation above targets in nearly all inflation-targeting economies in the region," experts of the World Bank said.
"Risks to the baseline forecast for the region remain tilted to the downside. Further COVID-19 outbreaks may occur, especially in economies with low vaccination rates. Given tight global and euro area financial and trade linkages, a prolonged pandemic elsewhere could generate negative spillovers to ECA. The region’s energy exporters remain vulnerable to large swings in global commodity prices," the World Bank added.