Coal’s share in Russian energy consumption to fall to 10% by 2050 — research
In the baseline scenario, Russia will stop trading coal with Japan and the Republic of Korea from 2026.
The share of coal as part of Russia’s total energy consumption will contract to 10% by 2050, Yakov & Partners consultancy says in its research (seen by or /available with TASS).
In the baseline scenario, Russia will stop trading coal with Japan and the Republic of Korea starting in 2026. Meanwhile, current GDP growth rates in developing economies will remain the same. "Under this scenario, coal’s share in the Russian energy landscape will carry on at 10.4% until 2030 and will decline to 10% by 2050. The share of renewable energy will triple during this same time and climb to about 3% by 2035," the study says.
At the same time, experts allow for an "accelerated transition" scenario, in which the growth rate of the world economy will return to its previous level, and the active development of the green agenda continues. In such a case, coal’s share in the Russian energy market will fall to 8.5% by 2050 and the share of renewables will grow to 6-7%.
The third scenario, a recession, means a global crisis. Developing nations will focus on more affordable energy sources and the implementation of green economy goals will stall. The share of coal in electricity generation in Russia will stay at 10.9% up to the year 2050 and the share of renewable energy will not exceed 1.5% under this scenario.
"In all three scenarios, coal remains an important component on the Russian energy landscape for the next three decades. The gas infrastructure development program and the increase in the share of renewable energy will slightly reduce steam coal consumption but economic feasibility will ensure that the demand for steam coal from generating companies will hold at least 92% of current demand until 2050," analysts said.
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The share of coal as part of Russia’s total energy consumption will contract to 10% by 2050, Yakov & Partners consultancy says in its research (seen by or /available with TASS).
In the baseline scenario, Russia will stop trading coal with Japan and the Republic of Korea starting in 2026. Meanwhile, current GDP growth rates in developing economies will remain the same. "Under this scenario, coal’s share in the Russian energy landscape will carry on at 10.4% until 2030 and will decline to 10% by 2050. The share of renewable energy will triple during this same time and climb to about 3% by 2035," the study says.
At the same time, experts allow for an "accelerated transition" scenario, in which the growth rate of the world economy will return to its previous level, and the active development of the green agenda continues. In such a case, coal’s share in the Russian energy market will fall to 8.5% by 2050 and the share of renewables will grow to 6-7%.
The third scenario, a recession, means a global crisis. Developing nations will focus on more affordable energy sources and the implementation of green economy goals will stall. The share of coal in electricity generation in Russia will stay at 10.9% up to the year 2050 and the share of renewable energy will not exceed 1.5% under this scenario.
"In all three scenarios, coal remains an important component on the Russian energy landscape for the next three decades. The gas infrastructure development program and the increase in the share of renewable energy will slightly reduce steam coal consumption but economic feasibility will ensure that the demand for steam coal from generating companies will hold at least 92% of current demand until 2050," analysts said.
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