Risks of accelerating inflation due to ruble’s weakening not high
Askhab Indarbaev, executive director of the expert club of the Center for Strategic Strategic Studies, emphasized that, taking into account the “de-dollarization” process, the share of the ruble in the currency structure of foreign trade payments has doubled compared to the first quarter of 2022.
The ruble’s devaluation carries no long-term risks for Russia’s macroeconomic stability, executive director of the CSR (Center for Strategic Research) expert club Askhab Indarbayev told TASS as he assessed the current situation with the national currency.
"A decrease in the national currency’s exchange rate is due to various factors. Of course, the key one is changing trade balance. The difference between export revenues and import expenditures in 2022 and 2023 is obvious. Export surplus is contracting due to a decline in export revenues over falling commodity prices," he explained.
That said, the current situation is favorable for export-oriented sectors, such as chemical and metal industries.
"A decrease in the rate pushes ruble revenues of companies with the main expenditures accruing to the Russian economy up. Enterprises will be able to boost investment in expansion of manufacturing and, consequently, create new jobs due to those additional funds," Indarbayev said.
Considering the de-dollarization process, the ruble’s share in the currency composition of foreign trade payments doubled compared with Q1 2022 and currently equals around one third of all settlements, the expert said, adding that the share of the dollar and the euro, on the contrary, fell two-fold. The share of other currencies such as the yuan and the rupee, is also on the rise, he noted.
"Consequently, the influence of currency fluctuations on the Russian economy is falling," Indarbayev said. "Inflation risks in the current situation remain rather low. This is partially connected with the fact that the range of import-substituting products has notably expanded in the country in recent years, which means that Russian consumers do not have to pay extra for foreign comparables whose prices have sharply increased due to growth of foreign currency. This allows considering the current official inflation outlook of 5.3% as of the end of 2023 relevant," he concluded.
Source
The ruble’s devaluation carries no long-term risks for Russia’s macroeconomic stability, executive director of the CSR (Center for Strategic Research) expert club Askhab Indarbayev told TASS as he assessed the current situation with the national currency.
"A decrease in the national currency’s exchange rate is due to various factors. Of course, the key one is changing trade balance. The difference between export revenues and import expenditures in 2022 and 2023 is obvious. Export surplus is contracting due to a decline in export revenues over falling commodity prices," he explained.
That said, the current situation is favorable for export-oriented sectors, such as chemical and metal industries.
"A decrease in the rate pushes ruble revenues of companies with the main expenditures accruing to the Russian economy up. Enterprises will be able to boost investment in expansion of manufacturing and, consequently, create new jobs due to those additional funds," Indarbayev said.
Considering the de-dollarization process, the ruble’s share in the currency composition of foreign trade payments doubled compared with Q1 2022 and currently equals around one third of all settlements, the expert said, adding that the share of the dollar and the euro, on the contrary, fell two-fold. The share of other currencies such as the yuan and the rupee, is also on the rise, he noted.
"Consequently, the influence of currency fluctuations on the Russian economy is falling," Indarbayev said. "Inflation risks in the current situation remain rather low. This is partially connected with the fact that the range of import-substituting products has notably expanded in the country in recent years, which means that Russian consumers do not have to pay extra for foreign comparables whose prices have sharply increased due to growth of foreign currency. This allows considering the current official inflation outlook of 5.3% as of the end of 2023 relevant," he concluded.
Source