Bank of Russia names conditions for raising key rate to 20% and higher
The Bank of Russia does not aim to stop lending, Deputy Governor of the Bank of Russia Alexey Zabotkin said.
The key rate of the Bank of Russia could be raised significantly if in the coming months the regulator continues to have doubts about the slowdown of inflation and a sufficient reduction of inflation expectations, Deputy Governor of the Bank of Russia Alexey Zabotkin said in an interview with Rossiyskaya Gazeta.
"If in the coming months we still have doubts that inflation is slowing down and the inflation expectations of individuals and businesses are falling sufficiently and at a sufficient rate so that in 2025 inflation is back to 4% or if additional inflationary risks materialize - for example, a significant deterioration in external conditions, a decline in our exports or a reduction in the ability to receive imports," he said, listing conditions under which the key rate could be raised to 20% and higher.
Zabotkin noted that it takes a considerable amount of time for the new level of interest rates to affect consumer and business decisions, credit and demand, and, as a result, inflation. "It takes three to six quarters. Therefore, the main effects of the decisions taken so far will be fully manifested in the second half of 2024 and beyond," he said.
He also emphasized that the Bank of Russia does not aim to stop lending. "The main task of the Bank of Russia is to reach low inflation for a wide range of consumer goods and services. These are not the same thing," Zabotkin said.
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The key rate of the Bank of Russia could be raised significantly if in the coming months the regulator continues to have doubts about the slowdown of inflation and a sufficient reduction of inflation expectations, Deputy Governor of the Bank of Russia Alexey Zabotkin said in an interview with Rossiyskaya Gazeta.
"If in the coming months we still have doubts that inflation is slowing down and the inflation expectations of individuals and businesses are falling sufficiently and at a sufficient rate so that in 2025 inflation is back to 4% or if additional inflationary risks materialize - for example, a significant deterioration in external conditions, a decline in our exports or a reduction in the ability to receive imports," he said, listing conditions under which the key rate could be raised to 20% and higher.
Zabotkin noted that it takes a considerable amount of time for the new level of interest rates to affect consumer and business decisions, credit and demand, and, as a result, inflation. "It takes three to six quarters. Therefore, the main effects of the decisions taken so far will be fully manifested in the second half of 2024 and beyond," he said.
He also emphasized that the Bank of Russia does not aim to stop lending. "The main task of the Bank of Russia is to reach low inflation for a wide range of consumer goods and services. These are not the same thing," Zabotkin said.
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